Economics
Leading Economic Indicators

The Leading Economic Indicators index is maintained by The Conference Board. The LEI presages economic expansions and contractions.

After the Clinton Stock Market Bubble burst, the market imploded. The economic malaise we experienced during the first years of the Bush presidency should rightfully be called the Clinton Recession. Scope the graph. The index started dropping in Q2 2000.

Confronted by the Clinton Recession, Bush cut taxes. Unfortunately, Bush caved to the Democrats and actualized the cuts the first year via rebates, a pure demand-side, Keynesian approach. Naturally, the rebates failed. The economy recovered, but sluggishly. In Q2 2003, the tax cuts began working their supply-side magic. As a result, the LEI index soared.

Since Q2 2004, the index is up, but it has dropped 4 times by at least one-half of a point. Fragile economy, anyone?

Below is the graph.